The Model Behind HSR Shield

HSR Shield runs on a purpose-built model of deal-team communication risk: 13 categories and 40 subcategories of pre-close jeopardy, grounded in actual FTC, DOJ, and European Commission enforcement actions. Most deal-team members aren't attorneys, so when an employee wades into one of these areas, the model names the area of law, explains the exposure, and advises a rewrite or don't send.

13
Risk categories
40
Subcategories
~90 days
Coverage window per deal
5-point
Enforcement-calibrated risk scale

The Full Deal Arc, Not Just the Waiting Period

01

Pre-Signing / Pre-Filing

CSI moving outside clean-team protocols, overbroad interim covenants, hot-document language headed for the 4(c) file, MNPI discipline before announcement.

02

Waiting Period & Second Request

Gun-jumping under Clayton Act § 7A, per se Sherman Act § 1 coordination, premature integration, customer steering, preservation obligations, EU standstill duties.

03

Post-Close & Decree Tail

Clean-team data destruction, Second Request certification accuracy, prior-approval provisions, consent-decree conduct terms and monitoring.

13 Categories of Deal-Team Communication Risk

Each category resolves into subcategories grounded, where the law provides one, in an actual enforcement matter. The citations define the fact patterns the model recognizes.

01

HSR Procedural Gun-Jumping (Clayton Act § 7A)

Premature beneficial ownership or operational control: consent rights over ordinary course, overbroad interim covenants, warehousing structures, early consummation.

XCL/Verdun/EP ($5.6M) · Altice (€124.5M) · Canon/Toshiba · Gemstar
02

Substantive Gun-Jumping (Sherman Act § 1)

Per se coordination between still-independent competitors: pricing, market and customer allocation, bid coordination, output.

DOJ v. Legends/ASM ($3.5M) · Flakeboard · Gemstar
03

CSI Outside Clean-Team Protocols

Pricing, margins, strategy, bids, and customer data moving outside clean-team channels, with no information-exchange safe harbors left after the 2023 and 2024 withdrawals.

Altice (CSI cited as control evidence)
04

Integration Planning vs. Implementation

The planning/implementing line: Day-1 design is permissible; data migration, imposed policies, combined purchasing, and pre-close reporting lines are not.

05

Customer & Supplier Communications

Pre-close price announcements, customer steering, joint sales calls, combined-buyer leverage.

Flakeboard (joint outreach; price-matching promise)
06

Employee & Labor-Market Coordination

No-poach and non-solicit agreements between merging parties, wage information exchange, and retention coordination. This is criminal exposure territory.

DOJ no-poach program · 2025 Worker Guidelines
07

Bad Documents & Document Creation

"Kill the competitor" and price-increase language, plus the February 2025 HSR document-scope traps: ordinary-course plans, the SDTL custodian, narrative consistency.

Chicago Bridge & Iron ("Godzilla") · Axon ("the gorilla")
08

Preservation & Ephemeral Messaging

Off-channel and disappearing-message use, litigation-hold discipline across every custodian class including bankers, PR, HR, and the board.

FTC/DOJ guidance (2024) · Google/Epic sanctions · SEC sweeps
09

Filing Accuracy & Second Requests

Omitted 4(c)/Competition Documents, underscoped custodian searches, investment-only exemption misuse, premature compliance certification.

ValueAct ($11M) · Biglari · Smithfield
10

Interlocking Directorates (§ 8)

Overlapping board and officer service, PE designee and observer arrangements, de minimis threshold tests.

Sevita/Beacon (FTC 2025) · Thoma Bravo sweep
11

PR, Investor & Securities Communications

Deal-rationale statements that create antitrust overlap, MNPI and insider-trading discipline, Regulation FD selective disclosure.

Loudon/BP-TravelCenters ($1.76M)
12

International Gun-Jumping

EU standstill (Art. 7(1)) and notification (Art. 4(1)) exposure independent of U.S. clearance, including informal hold-separates.

Altice (CJEU 2023) · Illumina/GRAIL · Electrabel
13

Prior Approval & Consent Decrees

The post-close tail: FTC prior-approval and prior-notice provisions, decree conduct terms, training mandates, monitor access.

FTC 2021 Prior Approval Policy · XCL and Legends decrees

Coaching Proportionate to the Exposure

Every risk area is scored on a 5-point scale calibrated to enforcement posture. A per se criminal pattern draws a different intervention than a gray-area diligence request, and ordinary deal work is left alone.

5

Per se / criminal exposure. Price fixing, market allocation, no-poach, obstruction, insider trading.

4

Classic gun-jumping / serious civil exposure. The XCL, Altice, and Qualcomm/Flarion fact patterns.

3

Bad documents / filing accuracy. Hot-document language and conduct that lengthens review and arms the other side's brief.

2

Caution / gray area. Warrants a counsel check, not a hard stop.

1

Generally acceptable. Ordinary diligence and counsel-approved planning. The model doesn't cry wolf.

Built for Everyone Who Gets Named as a Custodian

Gun-jumping complaints don't stop at corp dev. The model covers every custodian class the agencies pull, tuned to the industries where merger enforcement concentrates.

Custodian personas

C-Suite Corp Dev / M&A Supervisory Deal Team Lead Sales Leadership Operations Investment Bankers PR / Comms / IR HR Integration Leads Board Members PE Partners & Designees

Industry coverage

Technology / Software Semiconductors Life Sciences / Pharma Energy Consumer / Retail Financial Services / Private Equity Japan & Asia Cross-Border (CFIUS-Adjacent)

Thresholds Move Every Year. The Model Moves with Them.

Every volatile figure is treated as dated configuration, re-verified against agency publications on each annual adjustment cycle.

$53,088
Maximum daily HSR civil penalty (2025 levels remain in force; the 2026 adjustment was cancelled by OMB Memo M-26-11)
$133.9M
HSR size-of-transaction threshold, effective February 17, 2026
$54.4M
Clayton Act § 8 interlock threshold, effective January 16, 2026
Feb 10, 2025
Expanded HSR document rules the model's document-risk categories are built around

One caveat we state before you ask: gun-jumping guidance derives almost entirely from consent decrees, so the model's risk boundaries reflect agency-favorable positions, not litigated law. Its outputs are issue-spotting prompts that educate employees and route close calls to antitrust counsel. They are not legal conclusions, and they are not a substitute for your interim-conduct protocol.

See the Model Against Your Deal's Fact Pattern

Walk through the taxonomy with our team, alongside your antitrust counsel, against the custodian list for your next transaction.

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